Corn is a necessary, silver is only a superfluity.
Whatever, therefore, may have been the increase
in the quantity of the precious metals,
which, during the period between the middle
of the fourteenth and that of the sixteenth
century, arose from the increase of wealth
and improvement, it could have no tendency
to diminish their value, either in Great Britain,
or in any other part of Europe. If those
who have collected the prices of things in ancient
times, therefore, had, during this period,
no reason to infer the diminution of the value
of silver from any observations which they
had made upon the prices either of corn, or of
other commodities, they had still less reason
to infer it from any supposed increase of
wealth and improvement.
Second Period.—But how various soever
may have been the opinions of the learned concerning
the progress of the value of silver
during the first period, they are unanimous
concerning it during the second.
From about 1570 to about 1640, during a
period of about seventy years, the variation in
the proportion between the value of silver and
that of corn held a quite opposite course. Silver
sunk in its real value, or would exchange
for a smaller quantity of labour than before;
and corn rose in its nominal price, and, instead
of being commonly sold for about two
ounces of silver the quarter, or about ten shillings
of our present money, came to be sold
for six and eight ounces of silver the quarter,
or about thirty and forty shillings of our present
money.
The discovery of the abundant mines of
America seems to have been the sole cause of
this diminution in the value of silver, in proportion
to that of corn. It is accounted for,
accordingly, in the same manner by every body;
and there never has been any dispute,
either about the fact, or about the cause of it.
The greater part of Europe was, during this
period, advancing in industry and improvement,
and the demand for silver must consequently
have been increasing; but the increase
of the supply had, it seems, so far exceeded
that of the demand, that the value of
that metal sunk considerably. The discovery
of the mines of America, it is to be observed,
does not seem to have had any very sensible
effect upon the prices of things in England,
till after 1570; even though the mines of Potosi
had been discovered more than twenty
years before.
From 1595 to 1620, both inclusive, the
average price of the quarter of nine bushels of
the best wheat, at Windsor market, appears,
from the accounts of Eton college, to have
been L.2 : 1 : 69⁄13. From which sum, neglecting
the fraction, and deducting a ninth, or
4s. 71⁄3d., the price of the quarter of eight
bushels comes out to have been L.1 : 16 : 102⁄3.
And from this sum, neglecting likewise the
fraction, and deducting a ninth, or 4s. 11⁄9d.,
for the difference between the price of the best
wheat and that of the middle wheat, the price
of the middle wheat comes out to have been
about L.1 : 12 : 88⁄9, or about six ounces and
one-third of an ounce of silver.
From 1621 to 1636, both inclusive, the
average price of the same measure of the best
wheat, at the same market, appears, from the
same accounts, to have been L.2 : 10s.; from
which, making the like deductions as in the
foregoing case, the average price of the
quarter of eight bushels of middle wheat
comes out to have been L.1 : 19 : 6, or about
seven ounces and two-thirds of an ounce of
silver.
Third Period.—Between 1630 and 1640,
or about 1636, the effect of the discovery of
the mines of America, is reducing the value
of silver, appears to have been completed, and
the value of that metal seems never to have
sunk lower in proportion to that of corn than
it was about that time. It seems to have risen
somewhat in the course of the present century,
and it had probably begun to do so, even
some time before the end of the last.
From 1637 to 1700, both inclusive, being
the sixty-four last years of the last century,
the average price of the quarter of nine bushels
of the best wheat, at Windsor market, appears,
from the same accounts, to have been
L.2 : 11 : 01⁄3, which is only 1s. 01⁄3d. dearer
than it had been during the sixteen years before.
But, in the course of these sixty-four
years, there happened two events, which must
have produced a much greater scarcity of corn
than what the course of the seasons would
otherwise have occasioned, and which, therefore,
without supposing any further reduction
in the value of silver, will much more than
account for this very small enhancement of
price.
The first of these events was the civil war,
which, by discouraging tillage and interrupting
commerce, must have raised the price of
corn much above what the course of the seasons
would otherwise have occasioned. It
must have had this effect, more or less, at all
the different markets in the kingdom, but particularly
at those in the neighborhood of
London, which require to be supplied from
the greatest distance. In 1648, accordingly,
the price of the best wheat, at Windsor market,
appears, from the same accounts, to have
been L.4 : 5s., and, in 1649, to have been
L.4, the quarter of nine bushels. The excess
of those two years above L.2 10s. (the average
price of the sixteen years preceding 1637)
is L.3 5s., which, divided among the sixty-four
last years of the last century, will alone
very nearly account for that small enhancement
of price which seems to have taken place
in them. These, however, though the highest,