earl of Northumberland, drawn up in 1512,
there are two different estimations of wheat.
In one of them it is computed at six shillings
and eightpence the quarter, in the other at five
shillings and eightpence only. In 1512, six
shillings and eightpence contained only two
ounces of silver, Tower weight, and were
equal to about ten shillings of our present
money.
From the 25th of Edward III. to the beginning
of the reign of Elizabeth, during the
space of more than two hundred years, six
shillings and eightpence, it appears from several
different statutes, had continued to be
considered as what is called the moderate and
reasonable, that is, the ordinary or average
price of wheat. The quantity of silver, however,
contained in that nominal sum was, during
the course of this period, continually diminishing,
in consequence of some alterations
which were made in the coin. But the increase
of the value of silver had, it seems, so
far compensated the diminution of the quantity
of it contained in the same nominal sum,
that the legislature did not think it worth while
to attend to this circumstance.
Thus, in 1436, it was enacted, that wheat
might be exported without a licence when the
price was so low as six shillings and eightpence:
and in 1463, it was enacted, that no
wheat should be imported if the price was not
above six shillings and eightpence the quarter.
The legislature had imagined, that when
the price was so low, there could be no inconveniency
in exportation, but that when it rose
higher, it became prudent to allow of importation.
Six shillings and eightpence, therefore,
containing about the same quantity of
silver as thirteen shillings and fourpence of
our present money (one-third part less than
the same nominal sum contained in the time
of Edward III.), had, in those times, been
considered as what is called the moderate and
reasonable price of wheat.
In 1554, by the 1st and 2d of Philip and
Mary, and in 1558, by the 1st of Elizabeth,
the exportation of wheat was in the same manner
prohibited, whenever the price of the quarter
should exceed six shillings and eightpence,
which did not then contain two penny worth
more silver than the same nominal sum does
at present. But it had soon been found, that
to restrain the exportation of wheat till the
price was so very low, was, in reality, to prohibit
it altogether. In 1562, therefore, by
the 5th of Elizabeth, the exportation of wheat
was allowed from certain ports, whenever the
price of the quarter should not exceed ten
shillings, containing nearly the same quantity
of silver as the like nominal sum does at present.
This price had at this time, therefore,
been considered as what is called the moderate
and reasonable price of wheat. It agrees nearly
with the estimation of the Northumberland
book in 1512.
That in France the average price of grain
was, in the same manner, much lower in the
end of the fifteenth and beginning of the sixteenth
century, than in the two centuries preceding,
has been observed both by Mr Dupré
de St Maur, and by the elegant author of the
Essay on the Policy of Grain. Its price, during
the same period, had probably sunk in
the same manner through the greater part of
Europe.
This rise in the value of silver, in proportion
to that of corn, may either have been owing
altogether to the increase of the demand
for that metal, in consequence of increasing
improvement and cultivation, the supply, in
the mean time, continuing the same as before;
or, the demand continuing the same as
before, it may have been owing altogether to
the gradual diminution of the supply: the
greater part of the mines which were then
known in the world being much exhausted,
and, consequently, the expense of working
them much increased; or it may have been
owing partly to the one, and partly to the other
of those two circumstances. In the end of
the fifteenth and beginning of the sixteenth
centuries, the greater part of Europe was approaching
towards a more settled form of government
than it had enjoyed for several ages
before. The increase of security would naturally
increase industry and improvement;
and the demand for the precious metals, as
well as for every other luxury and ornament,
would naturally increase with the increase of
riches. A greater annual produce would require
a greater quantity of coin to circulate
it; and a greater number of rich people would
require a greater quantity of plate and other
ornaments of silver. It is natural to suppose,
too, that the greater part of the mines which
then supplied the European market with silver
might be a good deal exhausted, and have become
more expensive in the working. They
had been wrought, many of them, from the
time of the Romans.
It has been the opinion, however, of the
greater part of those who have written upon
the prices of commodities in ancient times,
that, from the Conquest, perhaps from the invasion
of Julius Cæsar, till the discovery of
the mines of America, the value of silver was
continually diminishing. This opinion they
seem to have been led into, partly by the observations
which they had occasion to make
upon the prices both of corn and of some other
parts of the rude produce of land, and partly
by the popular notion, that as the quantity of
silver naturally increases in every country with
the increase of wealth, so its value diminishes
as its quantity increases.
In their observations upon the prices of corn,
three different circumstances seem frequently
to have misled them.
First, in ancient times, almost all rents
were paid in kind; in a certain quantity of